TN State at N Carolina: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Nov 22, 2011 7:30 pm - Chapel Hill, NC
Odds: North Carolina by 25.5, Total Points: 146.5

More Games From Nov 22, 2011

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNST UNC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting TNST UNC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 58.9
Field Goal % 40.0% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.1% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 32.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 32.0
Free Throw % 65.4% 65.3%
Ball Control TNST UNC
Rebounds 34.8 44.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 14.6
Turnovers 13.2 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.4
Steals 4.9 5.2
Fouls 21.2 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNST UNC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with TNST UNC
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 19.9%
Player Fouled 17.9% 28.6%
Turnover 17.8% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNST UNC
Shot Blocked 5.9% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 36.2%