Pacific at St Marys: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Feb 15, 2020 8:00 pm - Moraga, CA
Odds: Saint Mary's by 10.5, Total Points: 127.5

More Games From Feb 15, 2020

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PAC SMC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PAC SMC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 56.4
Field Goal % 41.7% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 45.4 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 10.5 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 36.2%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 16.6
Free Throw % 63.4% 72.5%
Ball Control PAC SMC
Rebounds 34.0 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 9.1
Turnovers 10.6 10.8
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.2
Steals 5.5 4.9
Fouls 14.9 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PAC SMC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PAC SMC
2 Point Attempt 58.6% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 13.6% 31.0%
Player Fouled 23.8% 21.9%
Turnover 15.6% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PAC SMC
Shot Blocked 5.7% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 26.1%