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Maryland at NC State : Box Score Simulation

Sunday Jan 8, 2012 6:00 pm - Raleigh, NC
Odds: NC State by 10.5, Total Points: 149

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMD NCST
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UMD NCST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 62.0
Field Goal % 51.2% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 40.8
2 Point Shooting % 60.2% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 35.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 16.7
Free Throw % 76.6% 69.5%
Ball Control UMD NCST
Rebounds 35.0 30.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 19.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 10.8
Turnovers 13.4 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.2
Steals 3.8 7.1
Fouls 13.9 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMD NCST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UMD NCST
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 25.5%
Player Fouled 23.7% 19.6%
Turnover 19.0% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMD NCST
Shot Blocked 6.8% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 31.8% 29.4%