N Carolina at NC-Wilmgton: Box Score Simulation

Friday Nov 8, 2019 7:00 pm - Wilmington, NC
Odds: North Carolina by 22, Total Points: 160

More Games From Nov 8, 2019

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC UNCW
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UNC UNCW
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 60.3
Field Goal % 49.7% 38.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.5% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 40.4% 28.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 17.9
Free Throw % 74.8% 77.5%
Ball Control UNC UNCW
Rebounds 42.3 29.7
Rebounds - Defensive 30.6 21.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 8.1
Turnovers 8.1 7.9
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.1
Steals 3.7 4.1
Fouls 15.3 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC UNCW
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UNC UNCW
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 28.4%
Player Fouled 24.3% 21.8%
Turnover 11.5% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC UNCW
Shot Blocked 3.6% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 35.1% 20.9%