Michigan St at Minnesota: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Feb 22, 2012 8:30 pm - Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Michigan St by 5.5, Total Points: 128.5

More Games From Feb 22, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU MINN
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MSU MINN
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 62.4 53.9
Field Goal % 43.7% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 23.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 39.2%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 30.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 42.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 15.5
Free Throw % 70.1% 54.6%
Ball Control MSU MINN
Rebounds 37.9 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 8.4
Turnovers 10.8 17.3
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.7
Steals 6.4 4.8
Fouls 15.7 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +1.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU MINN
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MSU MINN
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 28.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 36.3%
Player Fouled 24.2% 21.5%
Turnover 14.8% 23.7%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU MINN
Shot Blocked 7.0% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 23.6%