San Jose St at N Mex State: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Feb 25, 2012 9:00 pm - Las Cruces, NM
Odds: New Mexico St. by 16, Total Points: 147.5

More Games From Feb 25, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting SJSU NMSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 52.0 59.4
Field Goal % 40.1% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 27.1 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 36.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 16.8
Free Throw % 72.0% 71.5%
Ball Control SJSU NMSU
Rebounds 28.5 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 12.2
Turnovers 12.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 1.8 1.8
Steals 5.6 6.2
Fouls 14.9 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJSU NMSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with SJSU NMSU
2 Point Attempt 34.9% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 29.8%
Player Fouled 23.8% 21.1%
Turnover 17.9% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJSU NMSU
Shot Blocked 3.0% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.2% 35.4%