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TN Martin at Louisville : Box Score Simulation

Friday Nov 11, 2011 7:00 pm - Louisville, KY
Odds: Louisville by 28, Total Points: 148.5

More Games From Nov 11, 2011

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TMAR LOU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting TMAR LOU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 59.2
Field Goal % 38.7% 51.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 62.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 28.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 38.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 20.4
Free Throw % 77.4% 78.7%
Ball Control TMAR LOU
Rebounds 28.8 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 19.9 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 11.5
Turnovers 11.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.9
Steals 5.4 4.6
Fouls 15.7 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TMAR LOU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with TMAR LOU
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 37.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 33.4%
Player Fouled 18.1% 21.9%
Turnover 15.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TMAR LOU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 36.6%