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NC-Wilmgton at Georgia St : Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jan 12, 2012 7:00 pm - Atlanta, GA
Odds: Georgia St by 13, Total Points: 132.5

More Games From Jan 12, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UNCW GAST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 54.4
Field Goal % 43.4% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 28.6 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 31.1 16.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 34.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 20.2
Free Throw % 65.6% 63.4%
Ball Control UNCW GAST
Rebounds 35.2 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 8.9
Turnovers 9.9 13.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.2
Steals 5.5 4.5
Fouls 16.5 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW GAST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UNCW GAST
2 Point Attempt 33.6% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 36.6% 19.8%
Player Fouled 25.1% 23.1%
Turnover 13.9% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW GAST
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 28.1%