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NC-Wilmgton at Manhattan

  Saturday Feb 18, 2012 - 2:00 pm - Riverdale, NY | Odds: Manhattan by 12, Total Points: 141 | Team Pages: UNCW | MANH

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCW MANH
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting UNCW MANH
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 50.6 48.1
Field Goal % 44.5% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 33.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 10.7 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 31.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 28.0 32.9
Free Throw % 68.8% 69.5%

Ball Control UNCW MANH
Rebounds 33.8 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 9.9
Turnovers 14.5 14.2
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.6
Steals 7.1 7.4
Fouls 21.9 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW MANH
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with UNCW MANH
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 12.7% 17.3%
Player Fouled 26.8% 30.2%
Turnover 20.0% 19.6%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 9.8%

Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW MANH
Shot Blocked 5.6% 9.1%
Offensive Rebound 31.8% 30.0%