UNLV at Fresno St: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Dec 4, 2019 10:00 pm - Fresno, CA
Odds: Fresno St. by 5.5, Total Points: 123.5

More Games From Dec 4, 2019

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UNLV FRES
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 48.4
Field Goal % 46.4% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 29.6 25.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.4 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 35.2%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 21.7
Free Throw % 70.0% 61.2%
Ball Control UNLV FRES
Rebounds 32.2 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 7.7
Turnovers 12.9 14.5
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.6
Steals 6.5 5.0
Fouls 18.4 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV FRES
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UNLV FRES
2 Point Attempt 38.2% 33.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 28.9%
Player Fouled 21.9% 26.7%
Turnover 18.7% 21.0%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV FRES
Shot Blocked 5.4% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 23.6%