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Toledo at Bowling Grn: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Feb 9, 2019 6:00 pm - Bowling Green, OH
Odds: Bowling Green by 2, Total Points: 147

Matchup Menu: TOL @ BGSU

More Games From Feb 9, 2019

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL BGSU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting TOL BGSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 59.9
Field Goal % 51.2% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 43.8 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 41.3% 30.0%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 17.7
Free Throw % 74.2% 72.7%
Ball Control TOL BGSU
Rebounds 31.4 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.6
Turnovers 9.2 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.5
Steals 6.2 5.4
Fouls 14.0 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL BGSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with TOL BGSU
2 Point Attempt 53.6% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 19.5% 23.7%
Player Fouled 21.4% 19.3%
Turnover 12.7% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL BGSU
Shot Blocked 5.9% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 28.7%