Arkansas St at Denver: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jan 26, 2012 8:30 pm - Denver, CO
Odds: Denver by 12, Total Points: 118

More Games From Jan 26, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST DEN
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting ARST DEN
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 65.7 62.5
Field Goal % 48.9% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 41.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 35.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 21.8
Free Throw % 70.2% 70.7%
Ball Control ARST DEN
Rebounds 41.8 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 8.9
Turnovers 8.0 8.3
Blocked Shots 5.8 4.2
Steals 4.2 5.0
Fouls 16.0 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST DEN
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with ARST DEN
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 24.7%
Player Fouled 19.5% 21.7%
Turnover 10.8% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST DEN
Shot Blocked 6.9% 9.0%
Offensive Rebound 35.1% 23.7%