Arkansas St at Texas St: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jan 19, 2019 5:00 pm - San Marcos, TX
Odds: Texas State by 10, Total Points: 139

More Games From Jan 19, 2019

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST TXST
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting ARST TXST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 58.8
Field Goal % 44.5% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 47.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 11.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 34.2%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 22.1
Free Throw % 70.2% 70.3%
Ball Control ARST TXST
Rebounds 38.1 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 10.0
Turnovers 10.2 9.8
Blocked Shots 4.8 3.8
Steals 5.4 6.2
Fouls 15.7 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST TXST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with ARST TXST
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 57.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 13.1%
Player Fouled 20.7% 21.9%
Turnover 14.3% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST TXST
Shot Blocked 6.5% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 27.5%