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Marist at U Penn : Box Score Simulation

Friday Dec 23, 2011 7:00 pm - Philadelphia, PA
Odds: Pennsylvania by 12, Total Points: 136.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MRST PENN
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MRST PENN
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 52.5 59.0
Field Goal % 40.1% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 29.3 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 36.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 17.5
Free Throw % 73.1% 66.6%
Ball Control MRST PENN
Rebounds 31.8 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 9.7
Turnovers 11.8 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.9
Steals 3.9 5.5
Fouls 15.1 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MRST PENN
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MRST PENN
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 29.4%
Player Fouled 23.9% 21.6%
Turnover 16.9% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MRST PENN
Shot Blocked 6.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 19.0% 27.7%