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St Fran (PA) at Mt St Marys

  Thursday Feb 2, 2012 - 7:00 pm - Emmitsburg, MD | Odds: N/A Total Points: N/A | Team Pages: SFPA | MSTM

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA MSTM
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting SFPA MSTM
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 49.8 54.4
Field Goal % 43.7% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 30.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 32.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 14.0
Free Throw % 67.2% 68.1%

Ball Control SFPA MSTM
Rebounds 32.9 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.9
Turnovers 12.4 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.3
Steals 5.7 5.8
Fouls 13.2 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA MSTM
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with SFPA MSTM
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 31.0%
Player Fouled 23.8% 20.3%
Turnover 19.1% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 8.8%

Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA MSTM
Shot Blocked 6.1% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 28.3%