U Penn at Harvard: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Feb 25, 2012 7:00 pm - Boston, MA
Odds: Harvard by 11, Total Points: 119

More Games From Feb 25, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PENN HARV
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 61.6
Field Goal % 40.4% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 43.2
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 33.2%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 17.0
Free Throw % 68.1% 68.5%
Ball Control PENN HARV
Rebounds 34.6 42.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 11.7
Turnovers 10.6 11.3
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.9
Steals 5.8 6.2
Fouls 13.9 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PENN HARV
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PENN HARV
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 50.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 21.6%
Player Fouled 19.4% 19.3%
Turnover 14.7% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PENN HARV
Shot Blocked 8.1% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 30.6%