Portland at St Marys: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jan 14, 2012 11:00 pm - Moraga, CA
Odds: St. Mary's by 24, Total Points: 147

More Games From Jan 14, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PORT SMC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PORT SMC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 58.5
Field Goal % 42.3% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 39.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 18.7
Free Throw % 68.8% 74.9%
Ball Control PORT SMC
Rebounds 28.3 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 4.5 8.9
Turnovers 12.5 9.3
Blocked Shots 3.2 1.9
Steals 3.2 7.4
Fouls 15.4 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PORT SMC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PORT SMC
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 28.5%
Player Fouled 24.0% 21.9%
Turnover 17.8% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PORT SMC
Shot Blocked 3.3% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 13.7% 27.2%