Elon vs. Davidson : Box Score Simulation

Sunday Mar 4, 2012 8:30 pm - Milwaukee, WI (Neutral Site)
Odds: Davidson by 13.5, Total Points: 140

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ELON DAV
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting ELON DAV
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 61.3
Field Goal % 42.0% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 23.2 26.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 32.6 34.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 40.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 11.6 10.4
Free Throw % 67.9% 78.0%
Ball Control ELON DAV
Rebounds 31.1 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 5.2 7.3
Turnovers 10.0 6.9
Blocked Shots 1.2 2.5
Steals 3.1 5.3
Fouls 12.5 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ELON DAV
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with ELON DAV
2 Point Attempt 31.5% 35.6%
3 Point Attempt 44.2% 45.9%
Player Fouled 18.2% 18.6%
Turnover 14.8% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 4.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ELON DAV
Shot Blocked 4.0% 2.2%
Offensive Rebound 15.3% 22.1%