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Elon at App State: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jan 28, 2012 2:00 pm - Boone, NC
Odds: Appalachian St. by 5.5, Total Points: 139

Matchup Menu: ELON @ APP

More Games From Jan 28, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ELON APP
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting ELON APP
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 63.2 62.8
Field Goal % 35.4% 51.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 42.0
2 Point Shooting % 37.7% 58.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 36.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 16.0
Free Throw % 68.8% 69.5%
Ball Control ELON APP
Rebounds 32.4 43.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 32.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 11.3
Turnovers 9.9 8.8
Blocked Shots 1.6 6.5
Steals 5.9 5.4
Fouls 12.8 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ELON APP
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with ELON APP
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 25.1%
Player Fouled 16.8% 18.1%
Turnover 14.0% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ELON APP
Shot Blocked 10.5% 2.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 33.9%