Penn St at Maryland: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Mar 7, 2021 7:00 pm - College Park, MD
Odds: Maryland by 6, Total Points: 136

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU MD
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PSU MD
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 53.1
Field Goal % 40.7% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 25.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 25.1
Free Throw % 74.9% 73.1%
Ball Control PSU MD
Rebounds 31.8 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 11.0
Turnovers 11.1 12.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.6
Steals 6.5 5.5
Fouls 17.5 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU MD
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PSU MD
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 21.8%
Player Fouled 23.6% 24.9%
Turnover 15.8% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU MD
Shot Blocked 6.8% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 32.0%