Penn State at Wisconsin : Box Score Simulation

Sunday Feb 19, 2012 4:00 pm - Madison, WI
Odds: Wisconsin by 14.5, Total Points: 114.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU WISC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PSU WISC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 54.1
Field Goal % 39.2% 53.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 40.4% 58.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 15.0 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 43.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 19.9
Free Throw % 60.5% 71.8%
Ball Control PSU WISC
Rebounds 27.5 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 17.5 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 11.2
Turnovers 7.5 9.1
Blocked Shots 1.8 5.0
Steals 4.3 2.3
Fouls 17.3 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU WISC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PSU WISC
2 Point Attempt 54.1% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 19.5% 25.2%
Player Fouled 23.7% 26.7%
Turnover 11.5% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 3.5% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU WISC
Shot Blocked 9.3% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 38.9%