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Penn State at Wisconsin : Box Score Simulation

Sunday Feb 19, 2012 4:00 pm - Madison, WI
Odds: Wisconsin by 14.5, Total Points: 114.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU WISC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PSU WISC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 59.0
Field Goal % 38.4% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 39.6% 47.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 37.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 19.3
Free Throw % 73.9% 63.1%
Ball Control PSU WISC
Rebounds 33.2 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 11.8
Turnovers 12.4 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.1 4.0
Steals 5.3 7.1
Fouls 15.5 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU WISC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PSU WISC
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 25.0%
Player Fouled 21.7% 22.1%
Turnover 17.6% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU WISC
Shot Blocked 6.9% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 31.9%