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Penn State at Wisconsin

  Sunday Feb 19, 2012 - 4:00 pm - Madison, WI | Odds: Wisconsin by 14.5, Total Points: 114.5 | Team Pages: PSU | WISC

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU WISC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting PSU WISC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 51.6
Field Goal % 41.0% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 41.8% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 14.4 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 36.2%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 11.8 24.2
Free Throw % 69.7% 77.5%

Ball Control PSU WISC
Rebounds 28.6 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 9.2
Turnovers 8.4 6.4
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.0
Steals 3.7 3.8
Fouls 18.4 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU WISC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with PSU WISC
2 Point Attempt 56.7% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 25.6%
Player Fouled 18.2% 29.1%
Turnover 13.3% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 5.8%

Odds Per Shot Taken PSU WISC
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.6% 29.6%