S Methodist at Evansville: Box Score Simulation

Monday Nov 18, 2019 7:00 pm - Evansville, IN
Odds: Evansville by 2.5, Total Points: 139.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMU EVAN
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting SMU EVAN
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 63.2 56.4
Field Goal % 44.0% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 34.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 17.0
Free Throw % 68.6% 69.9%
Ball Control SMU EVAN
Rebounds 41.2 32.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 14.1 7.8
Turnovers 9.7 12.3
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.9
Steals 8.4 5.8
Fouls 14.6 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMU EVAN
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with SMU EVAN
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 24.6%
Player Fouled 18.4% 20.7%
Turnover 13.7% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMU EVAN
Shot Blocked 7.1% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 36.6% 22.4%