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Cal Poly at UC Davis: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jan 28, 2012 10:00 pm - Davis, CA
Odds: Cal Poly SLO by 15.5, Total Points: 121

Matchup Menu: CP @ UCD

More Games From Jan 28, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP UCD
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting CP UCD
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 51.7 52.3
Field Goal % 38.3% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 41.8% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.8 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 32.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 24.8
Free Throw % 70.9% 76.1%
Ball Control CP UCD
Rebounds 29.5 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 21.5 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 10.3
Turnovers 13.9 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.4
Steals 5.4 7.6
Fouls 17.7 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP UCD
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with CP UCD
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 20.2%
Player Fouled 24.3% 25.6%
Turnover 20.0% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP UCD
Shot Blocked 6.7% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 32.5%