App State vs. NC-Grnsboro: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Mar 3, 2012 12:00 pm - Asheville, NC (Neutral Site)
Odds: Appalachian St. by 2.5, Total Points: 150

More Games From Mar 3, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring APP UNCG
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting APP UNCG
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 48.4 62.6
Field Goal % 42.6% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 31.3 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 28.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 32.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 13.4
Free Throw % 67.4% 61.4%
Ball Control APP UNCG
Rebounds 34.6 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 12.5
Turnovers 15.5 11.0
Blocked Shots 1.7 4.3
Steals 6.3 8.4
Fouls 12.5 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats APP UNCG
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with APP UNCG
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 34.0%
Player Fouled 26.3% 17.7%
Turnover 21.9% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 11.9% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken APP UNCG
Shot Blocked 6.8% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 31.7%