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Mt St Marys at Penn St: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Dec 18, 2011 4:00 pm - University Park, PA
Odds: N/A, Total Points: N/A

Matchup Menu: MSM @ PSU

More Games From Dec 18, 2011

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM PSU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MSM PSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 58.2
Field Goal % 43.9% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 35.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 21.8
Free Throw % 71.9% 74.9%
Ball Control MSM PSU
Rebounds 35.3 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.7
Turnovers 16.1 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.5
Steals 5.4 10.1
Fouls 15.3 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM PSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MSM PSU
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 26.9%
Player Fouled 18.1% 21.2%
Turnover 22.2% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 13.9% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM PSU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 25.0%