App State at S Alabama: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jan 3, 2019 8:00 pm - Mobile, AL
Odds: South Alabama by 1, Total Points: 150

More Games From Jan 3, 2019

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring APP USA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting APP USA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 52.3
Field Goal % 42.7% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 27.4 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 15.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.5% 33.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 16.7
Free Throw % 67.4% 72.6%
Ball Control APP USA
Rebounds 32.2 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 6.9
Turnovers 12.0 12.0
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.7
Steals 5.8 7.5
Fouls 13.8 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats APP USA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with APP USA
2 Point Attempt 35.1% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 34.0% 20.7%
Player Fouled 22.6% 20.4%
Turnover 17.8% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 11.1% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken APP USA
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 23.3%