Lehigh vs. Duke : Box Score Simulation

Friday Mar 16, 2012 7:15 pm - Greensboro, NC (Neutral Site)
Odds: Duke by 11, Total Points: 148.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring LEH DUKE
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting LEH DUKE
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 68.0 66.6
Field Goal % 36.0% 57.4%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 42.8 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 34.6% 68.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 39.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 11.0 26.8
Free Throw % 77.5% 67.8%
Ball Control LEH DUKE
Rebounds 26.8 50.5
Rebounds - Defensive 19.5 36.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 14.3
Turnovers 11.2 7.7
Blocked Shots 1.0 7.3
Steals 3.2 7.2
Fouls 17.7 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LEH DUKE
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with LEH DUKE
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 26.9%
Player Fouled 15.4% 22.9%
Turnover 14.6% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 4.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LEH DUKE
Shot Blocked 11.0% 1.5%
Offensive Rebound 16.9% 42.4%