TX El Paso at UNLV: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Dec 14, 2011 10:00 pm - Las Vegas, NV
Odds: UNLV by 17, Total Points: 134.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTEP UNLV
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UTEP UNLV
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 46.7
Field Goal % 39.1% 52.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 44.0% 60.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 14.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.9% 33.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 26.2
Free Throw % 68.0% 73.0%
Ball Control UTEP UNLV
Rebounds 29.0 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 18.1 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 8.4
Turnovers 13.9 15.2
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.7
Steals 9.5 6.3
Fouls 18.3 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTEP UNLV
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UTEP UNLV
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 18.1%
Player Fouled 21.2% 26.1%
Turnover 19.8% 21.7%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 13.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTEP UNLV
Shot Blocked 10.2% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 31.6%