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North Texas at AR Lit Rock

  Thursday Feb 23, 2012 - 8:00 pm - Little Rock, AR | Odds: Arkansas-Little Rock by 3, Total Points: 132 | Team Pages: NTEX | ALR

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring NTEX ALR
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting NTEX ALR
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 51.1 56.4
Field Goal % 43.9% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 32.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 22.3
Free Throw % 62.8% 71.8%

Ball Control NTEX ALR
Rebounds 35.5 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.7
Turnovers 12.2 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.7
Steals 4.3 5.9
Fouls 16.0 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NTEX ALR
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with NTEX ALR
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 26.3%
Player Fouled 24.8% 23.1%
Turnover 17.6% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 6.2%

Odds Per Shot Taken NTEX ALR
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 29.1%