Neb Omaha at St Marys: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Dec 1, 2019 8:00 pm - Moraga, CA
Odds: Saint Mary's by 15.5, Total Points: 135.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEOM SMC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting NEOM SMC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 50.2 57.1
Field Goal % 37.0% 51.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 40.0% 59.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 14.0 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 38.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 18.2
Free Throw % 75.0% 67.1%
Ball Control NEOM SMC
Rebounds 25.1 40.6
Rebounds - Defensive 20.1 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 5.0 11.3
Turnovers 9.0 8.6
Blocked Shots 1.6 3.6
Steals 4.3 5.6
Fouls 14.3 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEOM SMC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with NEOM SMC
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 19.3% 28.5%
Player Fouled 25.1% 21.7%
Turnover 13.7% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEOM SMC
Shot Blocked 6.3% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 14.7% 36.1%