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Central FL vs. Connecticut

  Friday Nov 25, 2011 - 2:00 pm - Nassau, (Neutral Site) | Odds: Connecticut by 7, Total Points: 132.5 | Team Pages: UCF | CONN

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCF CONN
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting UCF CONN
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 58.2
Field Goal % 37.6% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 39.7% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 39.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 15.8
Free Throw % 64.2% 70.6%

Ball Control UCF CONN
Rebounds 31.3 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.5 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 11.3
Turnovers 10.1 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.6 6.4
Steals 3.9 4.7
Fouls 13.0 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCF CONN
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with UCF CONN
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 23.5%
Player Fouled 20.9% 20.1%
Turnover 15.6% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.0%

Odds Per Shot Taken UCF CONN
Shot Blocked 11.1% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 34.4%