S Alabama at AR Lit Rock: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jan 26, 2012 8:00 pm - Little Rock, AR
Odds: Little Rock by 2, Total Points: 122

More Games From Jan 26, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA UALR
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting USA UALR
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 60.4
Field Goal % 42.5% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 42.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 31.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 18.6
Free Throw % 74.7% 73.2%
Ball Control USA UALR
Rebounds 29.3 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 10.7
Turnovers 10.5 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.4 5.6
Steals 5.6 5.2
Fouls 13.8 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA UALR
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with USA UALR
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 21.5%
Player Fouled 19.3% 18.9%
Turnover 14.3% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA UALR
Shot Blocked 9.5% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 32.6%