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S Alabama vs. Denver : Box Score Simulation

Sunday Mar 4, 2012 9:45 pm - Hot Springs, AR (Neutral Site)
Odds: Denver by 9.5, Total Points: 129.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA DENV
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting USA DENV
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 50.3
Field Goal % 44.0% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 43.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 25.0 23.3
Free Throw % 66.7% 73.9%
Ball Control USA DENV
Rebounds 29.7 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 7.9
Turnovers 9.8 15.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.1
Steals 8.4 3.9
Fouls 20.0 19.2

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA DENV
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with USA DENV
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 20.8%
Player Fouled 26.4% 27.5%
Turnover 13.4% 21.9%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 11.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA DENV
Shot Blocked 4.2% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 27.4%