Southern at Alabama St: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Feb 22, 2020 6:00 pm - Montgomery, AL
Odds: Alabama St. by 1, Total Points: 130

More Games From Feb 22, 2020

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring SOU ALST
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting SOU ALST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 48.7
Field Goal % 45.7% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 15.7 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 29.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 24.9
Free Throw % 67.7% 60.7%
Ball Control SOU ALST
Rebounds 37.0 31.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 8.4
Turnovers 13.0 14.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.3
Steals 6.4 4.9
Fouls 20.8 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SOU ALST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with SOU ALST
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 19.2% 21.1%
Player Fouled 25.9% 29.5%
Turnover 18.5% 20.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SOU ALST
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 23.8%