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Sac State at Montana St: Box Score Simulation

Friday Mar 5, 2021 2:00 pm - Bozeman, MT
Odds: Montana St. by 4.5, Total Points: 134

Matchup Menu: CSUS @ MTST

More Games From Mar 5, 2021

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSUS MTST
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting CSUS MTST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 53.4
Field Goal % 44.2% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 38.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 16.6
Free Throw % 71.7% 72.4%
Ball Control CSUS MTST
Rebounds 35.0 26.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 21.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 5.5
Turnovers 13.9 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.4
Steals 4.9 8.1
Fouls 16.0 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSUS MTST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with CSUS MTST
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 29.9%
Player Fouled 23.3% 23.6%
Turnover 20.5% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 11.9% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSUS MTST
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 33.9% 18.5%