Sac State at Montana St : Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jan 19, 2012 9:00 pm - Bozeman, MT
Odds: Montana St. by 6, Total Points: 134

More Games From Jan 19, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting SAST MTST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 48.9 54.9
Field Goal % 44.4% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 26.0% 31.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 21.1
Free Throw % 69.2% 71.9%
Ball Control SAST MTST
Rebounds 32.7 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 22.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 11.3
Turnovers 17.1 13.4
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.0
Steals 4.7 7.2
Fouls 15.7 19.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAST MTST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with SAST MTST
2 Point Attempt 41.2% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 25.5%
Player Fouled 27.0% 22.3%
Turnover 24.2% 19.0%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAST MTST
Shot Blocked 3.7% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 31.8%