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Montana at Oregon St : Box Score Simulation

Sunday Dec 4, 2011 8:00 pm - Corvallis, OR
Odds: Oregon St. by 11, Total Points: 137

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MONT ORST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 49.6
Field Goal % 43.1% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 13.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 34.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 26.8
Free Throw % 70.4% 69.5%
Ball Control MONT ORST
Rebounds 31.4 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 9.1
Turnovers 10.6 13.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.9
Steals 6.7 4.9
Fouls 21.0 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT ORST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MONT ORST
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 19.6% 16.3%
Player Fouled 25.9% 29.6%
Turnover 15.0% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT ORST
Shot Blocked 7.9% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 30.1%