Montana vs. Wisconsin : Box Score Simulation

Thursday Mar 15, 2012 2:10 pm - Albuquerque, NM (Neutral Site)
Odds: Wisconsin by 8.5, Total Points: 117

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MONT WISC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 52.2
Field Goal % 37.9% 52.1%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 39.0% 60.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 35.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 26.3
Free Throw % 75.2% 63.1%
Ball Control MONT WISC
Rebounds 28.1 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.4 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 10.4
Turnovers 10.6 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.7
Steals 4.3 5.8
Fouls 20.1 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT WISC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MONT WISC
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 21.4%
Player Fouled 22.4% 29.8%
Turnover 15.7% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT WISC
Shot Blocked 9.2% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 33.8%