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Loyola-MD at Fairfield : Box Score Simulation

Friday Jan 13, 2012 9:00 pm - Bridgeport, CT
Odds: Fairfield by 5, Total Points: 127

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring LMAR FAIR
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting LMAR FAIR
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 59.2
Field Goal % 40.8% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 41.1 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 38.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 21.4
Free Throw % 70.5% 74.0%
Ball Control LMAR FAIR
Rebounds 37.8 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 8.8
Turnovers 12.0 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.5
Steals 4.5 5.5
Fouls 18.4 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LMAR FAIR
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with LMAR FAIR
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 25.4%
Player Fouled 21.7% 25.1%
Turnover 16.3% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LMAR FAIR
Shot Blocked 9.4% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 31.9% 25.8%