Minnesota at Miami: Box Score Simulation

Monday Mar 19, 2012 9:00 pm - Coral Gables, FL
Odds: Miami by 5.5, Total Points: 131

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MINN MIA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MINN MIA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 61.5
Field Goal % 45.8% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 29.7 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 39.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 13.9
Free Throw % 67.9% 71.6%
Ball Control MINN MIA
Rebounds 36.1 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 9.2
Turnovers 10.6 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.0
Steals 6.5 7.1
Fouls 12.3 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MINN MIA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MINN MIA
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 36.3% 26.7%
Player Fouled 16.3% 17.4%
Turnover 15.0% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MINN MIA
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 25.8%