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S Mississippi at UCF: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jan 28, 2012 7:00 pm - Orlando, FL
Odds: Central Florida by 2.5, Total Points: 125

Matchup Menu: USM @ UCF

More Games From Jan 28, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM UCF
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting USM UCF
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 51.2 59.1
Field Goal % 36.7% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 38.9% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 34.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 24.8
Free Throw % 70.5% 68.6%
Ball Control USM UCF
Rebounds 33.2 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 13.1
Turnovers 14.0 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.7
Steals 5.6 9.9
Fouls 16.6 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM UCF
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with USM UCF
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 23.3%
Player Fouled 22.9% 23.3%
Turnover 19.7% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 13.9% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM UCF
Shot Blocked 8.0% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 34.3%