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Southern Miss at Texas St: Recap
Saturday Jan 17, 2026 4:30 pm -
San Marcos, TX
Odds:
Texas State by 2,
Total Points:
140.5
Matchup Menu: USM @ TXST
| Game Winner Pick | Confidence | Projection | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | USM | 45.0% | ||
| TXST | 55.0% | |||
| ATS Pick | Confidence | Projection | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST -2.0 | USM | 49.9% | ||
| TXST | 50.1% | |||
| Totals Pick | Confidence | Projection | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 140.5 | Over | 48.3% | ||
| Under | 51.7% | |||
| Money Line Value Pick | Confidence | Projection | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lay Off | USM | -1.5% | ||
| TXST | -2.5% | |||
| Final Score Projection | Vegas Implied | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 68.9 | 69.2 | 67 |
| TXST | 70.9 | 71.2 | 74 |
Offensive Stat Comparison
| Stat | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 73.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Score Margin | -0.9 | -0.6 |
| Assists/Game | 11.2 | 12.7 |
| Total Rebounds/Gm | 35.9 | 34.8 |
| Effective FG % | 49.0% | 50.0% |
| Off Rebound % | 30.8% | 32.1% |
| FTA/FGA | 0.432 | 0.340 |
| Turnover % | 15.8% | 16.1% |
Defensive Stat Comparison
| Stat | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Opp Points/Game | 74.8 | 72.5 |
| Opp Effective FG % | 51.4% | 52.0% |
| Off Rebounds/Gm | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| Def Rebounds/Gm | 22.8 | 21.9 |
| Blocks/Game | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Steals/Game | 7.3 | 7.9 |
| Personal Fouls/Gm | 19.4 | 18.2 |