Dayton at U Mass: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Feb 15, 2020 12:30 pm - Amherst, MA
Odds: Dayton by 13, Total Points: 146.5

More Games From Feb 15, 2020

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY MASS
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting DAY MASS
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 48.6 58.0
Field Goal % 56.3% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 64.8% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 14.9 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 33.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 22.4
Free Throw % 73.3% 75.8%
Ball Control DAY MASS
Rebounds 32.3 28.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 19.9
Rebounds - Offensive 5.0 9.1
Turnovers 15.9 10.5
Blocked Shots 1.9 2.9
Steals 4.3 4.7
Fouls 17.6 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY MASS
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with DAY MASS
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 29.6%
Player Fouled 25.0% 23.9%
Turnover 21.7% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY MASS
Shot Blocked 5.1% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.1% 24.9%