IL-Chicago at Dayton: Box Score Simulation

Friday Dec 23, 2011 7:00 pm - Dayton, OH
Odds: Dayton by 16.5, Total Points: 133

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UIC DAY
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UIC DAY
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 54.2
Field Goal % 38.9% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 42.5% 60.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 32.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 23.7
Free Throw % 67.7% 71.8%
Ball Control UIC DAY
Rebounds 32.5 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 7.3
Turnovers 14.7 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.4
Steals 4.1 5.7
Fouls 19.0 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UIC DAY
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UIC DAY
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 40.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 28.0%
Player Fouled 20.4% 26.8%
Turnover 20.7% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UIC DAY
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 23.2%