Illinois at Missouri : Box Score Simulation

Thursday Dec 22, 2011 9:00 pm - St. Louis, MO
Odds: Missouri by 7, Total Points: 140

More Games From Dec 22, 2011

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL MIZZ
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting ILL MIZZ
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 46.8
Field Goal % 38.6% 54.4%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 26.2
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 65.9%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 28.2% 39.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 25.3
Free Throw % 72.1% 72.9%
Ball Control ILL MIZZ
Rebounds 29.2 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 18.0 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 7.5
Turnovers 10.6 16.1
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.0
Steals 6.8 5.3
Fouls 20.4 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL MIZZ
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with ILL MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 32.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 25.8%
Player Fouled 23.8% 28.6%
Turnover 14.8% 22.5%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL MIZZ
Shot Blocked 8.6% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 29.4%