Morehead St at TN State : Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Jan 11, 2012 8:00 pm - Nashville, TN
Odds: Tennessee St. by 5.5, Total Points: 128

More Games From Jan 11, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MORE TNST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 43.2
Field Goal % 39.4% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 30.2
2 Point Shooting % 34.4% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 13.0
3 Point Shooting % 50.8% 42.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 28.4
Free Throw % 66.6% 75.7%
Ball Control MORE TNST
Rebounds 33.3 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 5.6
Turnovers 9.1 15.7
Blocked Shots 5.6 3.4
Steals 9.4 7.1
Fouls 22.1 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MORE TNST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MORE TNST
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 38.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 16.8%
Player Fouled 23.6% 31.7%
Turnover 13.1% 22.5%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 13.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MORE TNST
Shot Blocked 8.1% 9.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 20.8%