Virginia at Maryland : Box Score Simulation

Sunday Mar 4, 2012 2:00 pm - College Park, MD
Odds: Virginia by 4.5, Total Points: 123

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA UMD
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UVA UMD
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 47.4
Field Goal % 43.0% 39.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 25.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 33.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 18.4
Free Throw % 71.7% 69.4%
Ball Control UVA UMD
Rebounds 34.5 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 6.6
Turnovers 8.3 12.3
Blocked Shots 5.0 2.8
Steals 5.7 3.8
Fouls 15.9 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA UMD
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UVA UMD
2 Point Attempt 51.8% 35.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 30.3%
Player Fouled 21.2% 24.9%
Turnover 13.0% 19.3%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA UMD
Shot Blocked 6.0% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 21.0%