Virginia at Maryland : Box Score Simulation

Sunday Mar 4, 2012 2:00 pm - College Park, MD
Odds: Virginia by 4.5, Total Points: 123

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA UMD
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UVA UMD
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 47.5
Field Goal % 42.5% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 45.1 24.2
2 Point Shooting % 43.4% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 40.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 12.0 20.6
Free Throw % 75.8% 71.7%
Ball Control UVA UMD
Rebounds 34.5 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 5.8
Turnovers 6.4 8.2
Blocked Shots 1.0 4.8
Steals 4.3 4.2
Fouls 15.7 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA UMD
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UVA UMD
2 Point Attempt 58.9% 35.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 33.8%
Player Fouled 20.7% 25.1%
Turnover 10.2% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA UMD
Shot Blocked 10.2% 1.6%
Offensive Rebound 33.1% 20.6%