Vermont at Maryland BC: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Jan 22, 2012 1:00 pm - Catonsville, MD
Odds: N/A, Total Points: N/A

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVM UMBC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UVM UMBC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 63.7 63.0
Field Goal % 42.9% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 29.8 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 33.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 11.7
Free Throw % 73.5% 67.9%
Ball Control UVM UMBC
Rebounds 39.5 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 30.8 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 7.3
Turnovers 7.8 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.8
Steals 6.3 3.4
Fouls 11.7 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVM UMBC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UVM UMBC
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 50.2%
3 Point Attempt 36.1% 27.5%
Player Fouled 17.8% 16.1%
Turnover 10.7% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 4.7% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVM UMBC
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 19.2%