Georgia at Kentucky: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jan 21, 2020 7:00 pm - Lexington, KY
Odds: Kentucky by 11.5, Total Points: 145

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UGA UK
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UGA UK
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 66.8 62.1
Field Goal % 39.0% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 46.2 44.4
2 Point Shooting % 43.3% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 25.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 20.0
Free Throw % 68.2% 69.4%
Ball Control UGA UK
Rebounds 35.8 44.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 14.2 15.3
Turnovers 12.5 14.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 6.4
Steals 6.9 6.4
Fouls 16.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UGA UK
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UGA UK
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 19.2%
Player Fouled 20.5% 21.7%
Turnover 16.5% 19.5%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UGA UK
Shot Blocked 10.5% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 32.9% 41.4%