Fresno St at Pacific: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Dec 29, 2011 10:30 pm - Stockton, CA
Odds: Fresno St. by 3, Total Points: 128

More Games From Dec 29, 2011

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES PAC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting FRES PAC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 50.3 60.3
Field Goal % 39.7% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 28.7 41.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.6% 41.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 35.6%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 16.2
Free Throw % 71.8% 67.8%
Ball Control FRES PAC
Rebounds 35.3 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 12.0
Turnovers 11.3 8.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.2
Steals 3.5 4.8
Fouls 13.9 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES PAC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with FRES PAC
2 Point Attempt 37.5% 52.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 23.1%
Player Fouled 25.7% 20.9%
Turnover 16.9% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES PAC
Shot Blocked 7.1% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 30.8%